|Article title||RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT OF CLOUD CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THE AIM OF THE CURRENT FORECAST OF DANGEROUS WEATHER PHENOMENA|
|Authors||V. A. Shapovalov, Kh. A. Tumgoeva|
|Section||SECTION I. METHODS AND ALGORITHMS OF INFORMATION PROCESSING|
|Month, Year||03, 2018 @en|
|Abstract||To date, the means of remote sensing of the atmosphere have achieved great success, at the same time, there are modern methods of operational data processing, all this requires updating and development of existing meteorological software. The current forecast of dangerous weather events is necessary at the stage of obtaining and processing the operational data of observations, the period of its relevance is the time between updating the information of most remote sensing methods in meteorology (3–30 min). The paper deals with the problem of detection, recognition and tracking for the current forecast of mesoscale meteorological conditions by radar, satellite and ground-penetrating data. The methods and algorithms of analysis of cloud convective cells dynamics are proposed. The problems of data integration as the basis of sustainable recognition of rapidly developing dangerous weather events are considered. Comprehensive studies of microphysical and electrical processes in the atmosphere were carried out using the active-passive geophysical monitoring complex constructed by FGBU "VGI", consisting of a meteorological radar and a network of sensors of the automatic thunder direction finder, rangefinder LS 8000, which work in comparison with the data of the network of ground meteorological observation points allowed to significantly improve the quality of detection and prediction of natural hazards. It is established that electric processes precede the appearance of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and thus are predictors of stages and trends of their development in the atmosphere. These predictors include: occurrence in the cloud of inter-cloud and cloud – earth discharges, the intensity of discharges per unit of time, the amplitude of the current of lightning, the rise time of the current, the sign of lightning discharge, the location of discharges in the cloud, etc. For example, a sharp increase in the intensity of intra-cloud discharges in the cloud (up to 60 times./min) indicates that a tornado or flurry of flocks dangerous to aviation may occur after 10-15 minutes. The reverse polarity of the lightning, mainly from negative to positive, indicates the beginning of the period of formation of hail particles in the cloud and the beginning of their loss, and, after the end of the hazardous stage, the polarity is restored. Examples of the developed system of information aggregation and current forecast of convective cloud cells movement are given. The high efficiency of automatic data processing in increasing the advance warning about the dangerous phenomena of convective origin is shown.|
|Keywords||Detection and recognition; convective clouds; extreme weather events; nowcasting; weather radar; lightning sensor.|
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