Authors S. I. Klevtsov
Month, Year 06, 2018 @en
Index UDC 681.3.062
Abstract The condition of the technical object is determined on the basis of the assessment of its parameters, current and forecast. The object is affected by various external factors that lead to degradation of the object parameters. If changing the parameters becomes invalid for the operating mode of the object, it can fail, and this can lead to an emergency. To prevent this, it is necessary not only to control the parameters during operation, but also to predict their values one step and more forward along the time axis. However, a reliable and satisfying forecast is possible if the behavior of the parameter is determined by the background, that is, by the data that are currently known, and the trend for the time series of the parameter retains the character of monotony for some time. To analyze the possible behavior of the time series of the parameter, including the assessment of trend stability, determining the points of change in its dynamics, the method of normalized Hurst scope was used. The normalized-scale method does not put an additional condition for the analysis of compliance with the normal law of distribution. For time series of parameters, this condition is practically not met. On the basis of determining the value of the Hurst exponent ranks are classified on antipersistent, random and persistent. If a series is classified as anti-persistent, it has pronounced fractal properties, and if it is persistent, then its trend has a "historical" memory and for its prediction you can use conventional time series methods. With the help of the Hurst exponent, it is possible to determine not only the estimation of the ratio of the strength of the trend to the noise level, but the magnitude of the index. thread the necessity of implementing procedures for filtering a noise component of the signal. On the basis of data processing about acceleration of the technical object by the method of normalized amplitude a conclusion about expediency of application of the Hurst exponent in the solution of problems of forecasting parameters of technical objects. The higher the Hurst indicator from the range (0.5÷1.0) for the considered series, the more accurate the forecast of the parameter values can be. For values of the Hurst exponent approaching the value of 0.5, additional data processing is required before the forecasting procedure to reduce the error in estimating the series values.

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Keywords Time series; model; forecasting; technical parameter; Hurst exponent; method of normalized amplitude.
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