Article

Article title EXTRAPOLATION UNIVARIATE FORECASTING METHOD THERMALFLUCTUATION PROCESSES OF ISOLATION OF SKL
Authors M. N. Dubyago, N. K. Poluyanovich
Section SECTION II. MODELING AND ALGORITHMS OF INFORMATION PROCESSING
Month, Year 07, 2018 @en
Index UDC 621.315.3: 621.316.99
DOI 10.23683/2311-3103-2018-7-86-98
Abstract The article is devoted to the problem of predicting the residual life of power cable lines (PCL) according to the monitoring of its thermal characteristics. Namely, the mathematical description of the data of layer-by-layer monitoring of the temperature dependences of the power cable: APA Pu g-1x30 / 25-10. Studies of changes in the temperature fields of the power cable in various modes of its operation and load, as well as external factors (temperature, humidity, etc.), have been carried out. The article discusses approaches to predicting the residual resource used in the operation of the PCL and their technical certification. The result of the comparison carried out is the selection of the method of forecasting, given that the accuracy of the forecast depends on which law is used. A method for predicting thermal fluctuation processes is considered with approximation of the dependences of thermal processes in the insulation of a power cable. It is shown that the use of modern methods of assessing the degree of damage to the PCL and the theory of reliability allows us to identify additional reserves of residual resource and evaluate it with the required reliability. The modeling of heat transfer of the PCL core with various functions was carried out. Analytical dependencies are obtained based on the analysis of thermal-fluctuation processes for calculating rational parameters of electrical devices for monitoring the technical state of insulation materials (IM) of PCL under load, taking into account the temperature characteristics of insulating materials. Of the three approximating dependencies considered (exponential function, linear function, and 1st degree polynomial), the exponential function demonstrates the best statistics. It is shown that, as an approximating predictor function for studying thermal-fluctuation processes, the use of a power-law function that provides the required accuracy and automation is most effective. A comparative analysis of the experimental and calculated characteristics and the selection of the optimal predictive function of the distribution of temperature fields in the PCL are carried out. To solve the problem of extrapolation, the analytical dependences describing the thermal fluctuation processes in the PCL are determined. Using the proposed approach allows you to implement devices for measuring thermal insulation processes, taking into account the influence of external factors on the measurement process and accelerating the measurement process.

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Keywords Theory of thermal processes; extrapolation prediction methods; insulation materials; throughput; reliability of power supply systems.
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